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Talk 1. Expert Judgement, Meta-analysis, and Participatory Risk Analysis (A
主讲:Simon French (University of Warwick, UK) 地点: 思源楼703 时间:2013-10-21 字体<    >

Abstract of the seminar:

There are three contexts in which one might wish to combine expert judgements of uncertainty: the expert problem, the group decision problem, and the textbook problem. The talk will begin with a survey of the first two, which have the focus of a single decision context, and on which much has been written. However, little has been written on the third, the textbook problem. This arises when one needs to draw together expert judgements into a decision analysis when their judgements were made originally in a context-free manner or perhaps for other decision contexts. In many ways the textbook problem parallels that of performing a meta-analysis of empirical studies. However, there are differences. In this paper, we discuss those difficulties and then focus on two closely related issues: How should expert judgement studies be published so as to facilitate subsequent meta-analyses, and how should such meta-analyses be performed?

Bio:

Simon French (University of Warwick, UK)

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