In this talk, we try to detect structural factors of instability and continuing conflict in the Middle East region through quantitative statistical analysis.  We study the problem of m-cycles balance with regard to states in the Middle East, extreme factions and US.  The result shows that the instable m-cycles are dominant in the well-known international barrel of gunpowder region. We confirm the quantitative analysis argument with the rigorous conclusions proved in random signed graphs. Our findings in this study suggest that m-cycles balance index might be applied as an effective measure to explore social alliances, and could be used as a measure of relative balance index to evaluate some network motifs are more stable than others in a society.

    李振鹏,副教授,大理学院统计系主任